{
 "format": "LSC-1",
 "lsc": "LSC-1",
 "edition": "E1",
 "cut": "2026-10-09",
 "name": "THE BAYES CARD",
 "handle": "bayes-card",
 "number": "Nº 1156",
 "house": "THE LABORATORY",
 "wing": "SIGNAL AND SENSE",
 "role": "what evidence should do to a belief",
 "tagline": "The rule of 1763: new odds are old odds times the weight of the evidence. What a test result really means, in people out of ten thousand; beliefs moved piece by piece; a second positive.",
 "sigil": "P(A|B)",
 "hue": "#2F7D3A",
 "punch": "E486E51F8710796BDD6D9605",
 "punch_of": "SKILL.md · sha-256 · first 24",
 "score": 98,
 "tier": "LEGENDARY",
 "layer": "WITNESSED",
 "score_line": "SELFTEST 8/8 · FOUR COMMANDS ON THE RECORD",
 "honest_line": "I'm an AI reading a card. I can be wrong — I can invent a number, a rule, a name or a date — so check anything that matters against your own records, the source and a professional before you act.",
 "term": "one purchase · yours to keep · nothing renews itself",
 "free": false,
 "wakes": "someone asks what a test result means, or how evidence should change a belief",
 "loop": [
  "test <common> <catches> <clears>",
  "say it in people out of ten thousand",
  "update <belief> <ratios>... · step by step",
  "repeat · a second independent positive",
  "say it reads results, it does not advise"
 ],
 "laws": [
  "**The base rate first.** What a result means depends on how common the thing is; the card always asks for it.",
  "**People, not only percentages.** Results are given out of ten thousand people, the way they are easiest to read.",
  "**Odds multiply.** Each piece of evidence multiplies the odds; the order does not matter.",
  "**Independence, said.** A second test helps only if its mistakes are its own; the card says so.",
  "**Certainty cannot move.** A belief of 0% or 100% is refused: no evidence could change it.",
  "**A calculator, not advice.** It reads numbers; the person who ordered a test reads the result with everything else they know."
 ],
 "never": [
  "give a positive's meaning without the base rate",
  "treat repeated tests as independent unsaid",
  "advise anyone about their own result"
 ],
 "machine": "scripts/bayes.py · test · update · repeat · odds · selftest",
 "proof": "selftest 8/8 · FOUR commands on the record",
 "faces": [
  "card.svg",
  "card-machine.svg"
 ],
 "box": [
  "SKILL.md",
  "CARD.md",
  "TIN.md",
  "START-HERE.md",
  "LICENSE-NOTE.md",
  "THE-CLAUSES.md",
  "MY-LEDGER.md",
  "WITNESS.md",
  "SELFTEST.md",
  "AUDIT.md",
  "MANIFEST.md",
  "HOSTS.md",
  "scripts/bayes.py",
  "references/THE-LAWS.md",
  "rules/ (4 doors)",
  "system/ (2 prompts)",
  "mcp/mcp_card.py",
  "card.json",
  "card.svg",
  "card-machine.svg",
  "card.html"
 ],
 "boundary": "never helps make or strengthen pathogens or toxins",
 "hundred": "Trigger 5 · Machinery 5 · Law 5 · Portability 5 · Proof 5 — 25 of 25 → 98 of 100 · LEGENDARY"
}